So far, how much does the epidemic affect the global shipping volume?
According to the data of IMF team, compared with other major export categories, container cargo export presents a more obvious double Valley mode.
In February, global container exports fell nearly 10% as a result of the virus disrupting Chinese exports. Exports picked up rapidly in March. However, it fell again in April and early May, because the epidemic spread led to the blockade of import areas such as Europe and the United States, and shipping companies also followed with the launch of more blank flight plans.
As of the end of July and the beginning of August, the global container cargo export volume has recovered to the level of January, but as of August 5, the average daily export volume still decreased by 1.4% compared with the same period of last year, and the cumulative export volume decreased by 3.8% compared with the same period in 2019.
In recent years, container shipping companies have successively released reports saying that the demand in South America is relatively low, but the demand flowing to other markets is recovering, especially the West Coast market of Asia America market. The IMF team's data confirm the strength of us China trade flows. (related reading: → Trump's magic operation, US imports of goods from China are growing rapidly!)
What needs to be explained is that, in fact, it is difficult to judge the volume of container traffic year on year. First of all, the time of Chinese New Year is different every year. Secondly, the tariff policy of the United States has also had a black swan effect on the data of 2018-19. To address these problems, IMF staff quantified the average daily traffic volume in 2020 with the average level in 2017-19, and adjusted it according to the lunar new year.
From this point of view, after the outbreak of the epidemic in Wuhan, China's container exports decreased by more than 25%, but imports from the United States decreased by only 10% (due to the lag effect of shipping time). Subsequently, the volume of containers coming to the United States rebounded from the initial impact, but fell again to 15% below average in June due to the subsequent blockade.
Volume change of dry bulk carrier
Dry bulk shipping, led by iron ore, coal and grain, is by far the largest freight market in the world. In the data released by the IMF team so far this year, dry bulk accounted for 44%.
In April, dry bulk exports began to pick up from the low point in the first quarter, then declined, and then rebounded in recent months. Compared with other sectors of the dry shipping sector, the impact of the dry season is greater. (Reference: →, the BDI index has soared by 400% in the short term. Should we raise our glasses to celebrate The fluctuation of the data is roughly consistent with the trend of spot freight rate. Data show that freight volume has been basically flat since this year (less than 1%).
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