Biden elected: container will benefit the most directly, followed by dry bulk cargo and bad crude oil
The outcome of the U.S. election will shape the U.S. fiscal stimulus, energy policy, trade relations, geopolitical and environmental regulations, and the associated shipping charges, for years to come.
Biden just tweeted: American people, I am honored that you have chosen me to lead our great country. Just then, Biden appeared as President-elect to address the nation. "Everybody, the people of this country have spoken," said to trump supporters, "let's give each other a chance.".
Whether the market segments are containers, oil tankers, dry bulk and liquefied natural gas, the future relationship between China and the United States will have a great impact.
It is expected that Biden administration's behavior toward China will be quite different, but trade tensions will still exist. The change of president will not change the general direction of Washington's China policy, which has become the consensus of the US government and the opposition. Biden's taking office will not change the general trend of competition and confrontation between the two countries. But compared with the trump administration, Biden administration may rely more on allies and traditional diplomatic means.
The US CNBC quoted Williams, a former White House chief trade negotiator, as saying.
"Being tough with China is what unites the polarized country. We are politically polarized, but on China, we are not polarized, "Williams said. But unlike trump, Biden's policy may be more robust and predictable.
"It won't tweet in the middle of the night announcing tariffs or something, but the overall trajectory will be roughly the same."
Containers will benefit most directly, followed by dry bulk. In the past three years, the shipping industry has been caught in the crossfire of trade friction between China and the United States The sentiment of the market and investors is affected by the change of words on both sides. This burden will be eased to some extent when Biden takes office.
But crude oil transportation is bad. Compared with the trump administration, the Biden administration may impose more stringent permits on us pipelines, reduce the ability to break ground on federal land, regulate methane emission and combustion, and other higher supervision. All of these may hinder the growth of domestic oil in the United States, thus reducing the expectation of such oil transportation to the East.
Trump's policy of stimulating consumption has artificially increased the demand for container transportation. The biggest beneficiaries include seagoing ships, trucking and intermodal railways. During the new outbreak, the U.S. labor market suffered a huge impact. However, the US fiscal stimulus has awesome results, but personal income has increased by 4.7% over the same period in August. It can be seen from this that fiscal stimulus policy alone has basically eliminated the impact of the recession on consumer spending, and the average unemployment income has also increased~
After Biden takes office, the Democratic Party is expected to pass a larger fiscal stimulus for the new crown epidemic, which is likely to be in significant contrast to the bill to be passed by the Republican Government in 2021. Senate Republicans have shown in the latest round of negotiations that their patience with big spending programs has run out. For example, under the leadership of the Republican Senate and trump, subsequent fiscal stimulus spending may fall sharply.
As for the tariff issues concerned by trade logistics practitioners, some analysts predict that the two governments may first reevaluate the first stage trade agreement reached before. Some contents of the agreement do not exclude adjustment due to changes in the actual situation, and then continue negotiations on the basis of the first stage agreement.
"From the perspective of the United States, the tariff imposed by trump is actually a" good chip "for Biden to continue negotiations. Biden is unlikely to take the initiative to cancel it."
Biden's senior advisers said Biden would consult with major U.S. allies to seek "collective influence" to deal with China before making a tariff decision on China. This is to avoid the mistake of repeating Trump's "US priority" agenda, which has annoyed several key US allies.
Another issue of widespread concern in the field of trade is that the United States, led by Biden, is likely to rejoin the TPP "trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement.". TPP is an economic and trade proposition during the Obama administration, which is generally believed to cause great pressure on China. However, the agreement has not been approved by the United States. After trump took office, he officially announced his withdrawal from the TPP in 2017, and the remaining 11 countries signed the cptpp "comprehensive progress agreement of trans Pacific partners" in March 2018.
Finally, according to Biden's previous campaign speech, he said that he promised to complete these within 100 days of taking office for reference only.
Immediately withdraw Trump's request to withdraw from who.
Immediately rejoin the Paris climate agreement that trump withdrew from.
To reestablish and maintain relations with the Western European and Asian allies of the United States.
A series of laws can restrict the purchase of firearms to people.
Immediate use of executive orders requires States to implement appropriate new crown isolation and mask measures to control the epidemic.
We will lift a series of immigration policies of the trump administration, welcome highly skilled talents and students from other countries to come to the United States, and open US visa.
Expand the scope of Obamacare and minimize the cost of health care across the country.
Working with Congress to pass a series of gay rights bills.
Work with city mayors and housing authorities to expand housing and reduce the number of homeless people on the streets.
We will promote the transfer of industry to clean energy and support the green new deal.
Trump still have a chance?
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